tstorm outbreak possible sunday/monday S.MN?

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burr28514
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Location: Duluth Minnesota
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tstorm outbreak possible sunday/monday S.MN?

Post by burr28514 » Wed Apr 19, 2006 2:46 pm

Just got done looking at the 00Z GFS model and this model shows some instability pooling up ahead of a strong cold front dropping southeast out of Canada for Sunday/Monday. Showalters (lifted indices) off the 00Z GFS model drop down to between minus 2 and minus 4 degrees late Sunday/Monday generally south of a line from the Minnesota River to the Twin Cities Metro area. Stronger instability looks to reside across the central plains once again so i'm sure there'll be a rather large outbreak of severe weather and possible tornadoes in that part of the country toward Sunday or Monday? Looking at the HPC surface map shows the strong cold front passing southeast thru Minnesota Sunday Night thru about midday Monday, so the timing of this front could limit thunderstorm development, but time will tell. And it looks like the warm front according to the HPC model will be setting up well to the south of Minnesota late Sunday/Monday, so the better severe weather threat/tornado threat should be across the central plains once again. But i wouldn't be surprised at all to see an outbreak of severe thunderstorms with large hail develop over parts of Southern Minnesota Sunday Night or Monday the way it looks right now. Something to watch in the coming days..
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tornadoforecaster
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Re: Severe weather outlook

Post by tornadoforecaster » Tue Apr 25, 2006 1:10 am

It has been fairly quiet around the upper lakes region now for better then a week, and from the looks of things, probably another week or so. One has to look a the broader picture when attempting any severe outlook greater then 3 days ahead. Our office puts out a 3-6 day severe outlook, and our forecast skill is lower out that far, but we generally watch for signs which could foster a significant severe outbreak, if the pattern holds on.

Right now, I see nothing in the wind as far as severe storms up here anytime soon. Then, how quickly things can change.............................. :)
Randy Groom, Senior Meteorologist,
MWS Storm Center Stevens Point, WI
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