February 16 Severe/Tornadoes?

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Andrew Revering
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February 16 Severe/Tornadoes?

Post by Andrew Revering » Thu Feb 16, 2006 2:02 pm

Severe Weather Forecast Discussion
Thursday February 16, 2006 - Prepared by Andrew Revering

Summary
Slight risk for severe storms possible in Northeast Texas, Arkansas, Illinois, Southeast half of Missouri.
Severe Weather Primary Target: Huntsville, AR.

Discussion

Thunderstorms are already firing throughout Michigan down through the Chicago area southwestward to near St. Louis where the first Severe Thunderstorm Warning was just issued around 1:50 central time. From there storms are firing southwestward into eastern Oklahoma.

Storms along this line could become severe shortly as the line enters more moisture and instability. Shear is quite intense so although there will be a predominantly linear mode to these storms, some embedded supercells and tornadoes are certainly possible.

Initially the storms near St. Louis and southwest to Oklahoma/Arkansas region will be most likely to go severe first, but you can expect severe storms and tornadoes anywhere from Northeast Texas to Illinois and later moving east.

The greatest risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening is going to be from Northeast Texas into much of Arkansas and Southern Illinois.
Andrew Revering
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Fred Gossage
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Post by Fred Gossage » Thu Feb 16, 2006 6:24 pm

This was our Day 1 Outlook, issued late last evening, for this event....

Image

Image

http://www.nemas.net/fo/swu/prodDY1.html
Fred Gossage
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Andrew Revering
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Post by Andrew Revering » Thu Feb 16, 2006 6:37 pm

Looks like you guys handled it well.
Andrew Revering
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Fred Gossage
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Post by Fred Gossage » Thu Feb 16, 2006 6:39 pm

Thanks........

Can't say your target area was that bad either. :wink:
Fred Gossage
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radiodude
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Called it good as always

Post by radiodude » Thu Feb 16, 2006 10:29 pm

Yep, up here in Central Illinois today 2/16 we had this
around 2:40pm in Gridley, IL (McClean Co):

Radar indicating strong rotation 7 Miles NE of Gridley, moving NE @ 75 MPH.

Duane
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Andrew Revering
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Post by Andrew Revering » Thu Feb 16, 2006 10:30 pm

Man that's cruisin'. Try chasing that. :)
Andrew Revering
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