FCST 1/28/06 - Dallas-Ft. Worth Tornadoes Possible

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Andrew Revering
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FCST 1/28/06 - Dallas-Ft. Worth Tornadoes Possible

Post by Andrew Revering » Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:36 am

The potential exists for severe storms to start developing in the Mineral Wells, Stephenville and Fort Worth, TX areas around 3 p.m. Storms would likely be mainly non-severe throughout central and eastern Texas, but the occasional severe storm and perhaps even tornado could be possible anywhere in central to eastern Texas.

Minimal instability in a narrow axis will help to keep the coverage of this severe weather to a minimum. The boundary sweeping east will likely help to organize the severe weather into lines of thunderstorms, however good deep layer shear may help to support imbedded supercells.

A very interesting feature of today's severe weather episode is a very large quantity of the minimal amounts of instability located in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. There is some research going on that suggests that this low level instability is very important to tornado development.

Although instability is low; the shear and low level instability levels make me believe that some tornadoes will be possible.

Explosive development of a couple severe storms with tornadoes is possible, however not probable. The greatest risk would be in the late afternoon to early evening hours right in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.

I think this needs to be carefully watched as the risk exists for a couple supercells and tornadoes in the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex area. Unlikely, but possible.
Andrew Revering
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Andrew Revering
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Post by Andrew Revering » Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:59 am

Nevermind.... the area seems to be getting worked over pretty good by morning convection.... doubt much will happen this afternoon.
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