FCST: 1/16-1/17 SVR - TX, AR, LA, MS, AL

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FCST: 1/16-1/17 SVR - TX, AR, LA, MS, AL

Post by Andrew Revering » Sat Jan 14, 2006 1:33 am

A low pressure system will be exiting the nation from the central U.S. through the Great Lakes on Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. During this process a trailing cold front will sag southward across Texas overnight. As it does, the boundary will encounter increasing moisture and instability. The southward moving boundary will be bringing in colder and drier air, and as it does, the thermal and moisture gradient will increase the closer the boundary approaches the coast. This will enhance lift along the boundary.

At the same time a screaming jet stream will be exiting the region. The area of concern will be in the right entrance region of a 130 knot jet max. This will support upper air divergence and further support lift in the region.

I think Monday Night, perhaps around midnight, strong to severe storms might be possible in South Texas. The only thing to potentially dampen this risk would be a lack of instability at this time of night. However, it appears that the widespread synoptic forcing of the system will be enough to compensate. But this should just make it a big blob of a mess, lines of heavy to severe storms.

However, there are a lot of things that make this look very good for severe storms. One factor is incredible shear. 6km shear looks currently to be on the order of 60-70 knots. As one would expect this time of year, capping doesn't look to be a problem.

Although there could be some organization to the storms given the amount of shear, I don't think that tornadoes will be a factor given the linear forcing from the boundary and limited instability. Interestingly enough, the Sig. Tor parameter is projected to be a 3 off of NAM model output.

Keep an eye on South Texas Monday Night.
Last edited by Andrew Revering on Sat Jan 14, 2006 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Andrew Revering » Sat Jan 14, 2006 7:34 pm

Looks like the scenario still holds. Perhaps a little more widespread and starting earlier than previoiusly thought.

Looks like storms maybe by late afternoon or early evening now across south Texas. Generally around Austin and San Antonio if I dare get that specific already. Then they track towards the coast by late evening.

More storms may then errupt over Southern Arkansas by early Tuesday Morning. Storms may then track ENE into W TN or N MS, but it looks like the regeneration of any potential severe stuff would be in Southern MS or Eastern LA. By late afternoon or early evening the storms may be as far as Alabama.
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