Hurricane Irene?

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Andrew Revering
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Hurricane Irene?

Post by Andrew Revering » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:35 am

Tropical Depression Nine is currently churning out in the Atlantic. It has a general motion that would lead you to think it might affect the United States. Lets start a discussion on this.

Do you think it's going to hit the US coast?

Personally I don't think it will. Its starting out at a bit higher latitude than you normally would like for something to hit the U.S. As it tracks east the NHC has it turning into a Hurricane by probably Tuesday. However the location looks to be pretty high in Latitude in the Atlantic, although still on a W - WNW motion.

Thoughts?

Andy
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Post by Andrew Revering » Sun Aug 07, 2005 11:06 am

Well today Irene becamed a named storm. However, the 5 day forecast from the NHC now does confirm my thoughts that it would take a turn out into the Atlantic.

Also, the NHC has downgraded it's 5 day forecast and no longer expects it to become a Hurricane.
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Post by Steve Miller » Mon Aug 08, 2005 9:48 am

Whew, Irene is sure not looking healthy in the near term with persistent shear but with a little time she might just get going...
The past few runs of the ECMWF show Irene to develop into a tiny hurricane as it moves westward into warmer SST's, then stall the low hanging out in the Bermuda Triangle.
Looks like a Eastern US landfall just north of Florida is possible at this time.
Question still remains - hurricane or tropical storm/depression?
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Post by Andrew Revering » Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:51 pm

Irene has been taking a much more westerly track over the past 24 hours. It looks like it's becoming more evident that a US landfall may indeed be a possibility.

The National Hurricane Center's latest forecast track seems to have North Carolina in it's sights. This is the first official US projected target path for Irene.

Andy
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Post by Andrew Revering » Sat Aug 13, 2005 3:42 pm

Irene looks like it's going to stay well off of the coast of North Carolina, somewhere about half way between Bermuda and North Carolina. It's possible that Irene briefly reaches Hurricane Strength or borderline Category 1 strength, however it doesn't appear that Irene is going to be any threat to land as it is now starting to make its turn to head into the North Atlantic.
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